Medicare Advantage enrollment has surged to 32.8 million in 2024. This represents 54 percent of total Medicare spending. The increase continues a steady growth trend over the past two decades.
Factors driving the growth include zero-premium plans and additional benefits such as vision and dental coverage. Dennis Scanlon, PhD, professor of health policy and administration at Pennsylvania State University, notes that beneficiaries often choose MA plans due to these extra benefits. They also like the requirement to limit out-of-pocket spending.
However, the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission recently reported that MA plans receive CMS payments that are 122% of spending for similar beneficiaries enrolled in traditional Medicare. This results in an estimated $83 billion in higher spending. Policymakers are increasingly scrutinizing how effective the current MA payment methodology is at enhancing efficiency, keeping beneficiary costs low, and reducing overall Medicare spending.
To better understand these trends, researchers analyzed current MA enrollment data. They found significant variation across states and counties. MA enrollment increased from 8 million in 2007 to 32.8 million in 2024.
medicare advantage growth trends
MA now includes 54% of eligible Medicare beneficiaries, up from 19% in 2007. More than 6 in 10 MA enrollees are in plans available to all beneficiaries, an increase of 900,000 from 2023.
Group plan enrollment grew from 1.8 million in 2010 to 5.7 million in 2024, showing significant uptake among retirees. Special needs plans (SNPs) saw a 16% increase, with 6.6 million enrollees in 2024. 88% of SNP enrollees are dual-eligible for Medicare and Medicaid.
MA enrollment varies from 2% in Alaska to 63% in states like Connecticut, Michigan, and Alabama. Puerto Rico boasts the highest penetration, with 95% of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in MA plans. Counties with high MA penetration are often large urban areas, while rural counties tend to have lower MA enrollment.
Beneficiaries could choose from an average of 43 MA plans offered by 8 firms. UnitedHealthcare and Humana together account for almost half of all MA enrollees nationwide. Market shares for several major firms have shifted slightly since 2017, with UnitedHealthcare and CVS Health seeing increases.
The Congressional Budget Office projects that MA enrollment will rise to 64% by 2034. Overall, the growth in Medicare Advantage enrollment reflects significant changes in how Medicare beneficiaries select and utilize healthcare coverage.
- AJMC.”Medicare Advantage Hits 32.8M Enrollees, 54% of Spending”.
- KFF.”Medicare Advantage in 2024: Enrollment Update and Key Trends”.
- Newsweek.”California Counties See Drastically Different Medicare Advantage Enrollment”.