This @WSJ chart captures well why the general public has yet to appreciate the fall in the US inflation rate from over 9% two years ago to just under 3%.#economy #inflation #econtwitter pic.twitter.com/jucDpufqMF
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) August 16, 2024
The Consumer Price Index slowed to 2.9% in July, marking the first time inflation has fallen below 3% since March 2021. This development paves the way for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates next month after a prolonged battle with inflation. Consumer prices rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in July, following a 0.1% decline the previous month.
Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly increase and a 3% annual rise, according to FactSet consensus estimates.
.@POTUS & @VP are making progress fighting inflation, bringing it to lowest level since the tail end of the pandemic.
This is good news, but there is more to do—like lowering more everyday costs of living, cutting red tape, and taking on price gougers.https://t.co/sMvQuw0e0Q
— Rep. Salud Carbajal (@RepCarbajal) August 17, 2024
Sung Won Sohn, professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University and chief economist of SS Economics, said, “Breaking the 3% barrier is a key psychological positive. It shows that inflation is not only trending down, but disinflation is on track.”
This chart from Strategas shows why many Americans are unsatisfied w/their economy. Inflation for the avg American – Common Man CPI consists of Food, Energy, Shelter, Clothing, Utilities & Insurance – has risen faster than wages, resulting in a perceived loss of purchasing power. pic.twitter.com/b9s3tESpIW
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 17, 2024
Core CPI, which excludes volatile categories like gas and food, rose 0.2% from June and saw its annual rate slow to 3.2% from 3.3%.
This marks the slowest pace for core CPI inflation since April 2021. The cost of owning and renting a home rose 0.4%, with the shelter index accounting for nearly 90% of the monthly increase.
Inflation trends signal easing pressures
Shelter, which makes up more than one-third of the overall CPI, has been the biggest impediment to inflation’s descent. Energy prices remained flat for July, while food prices continued to rise modestly. Grocery prices were up 0.1% for the month, and restaurant prices increased by 0.2%.
On an annual basis, grocery and restaurant prices are up 1.1% and 4.1%, respectively. The July CPI report was “unequivocally” good, according to Brian Bethune from Boston College. It builds on a solidly positive June report, helping to assure the Federal Reserve and markets that inflation is moderating.
Christopher Rupkey, chief economist for FwdBonds LLC, commented, “Any Fed official waiting for more data to make the decision on whether to cut interest rates got it in spades this morning.”
Robert Triest, an economics professor at Northeastern University, expects the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, to reflect even more positive trends when it’s released at the end of the month. Jared Bernstein, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, praised the latest CPI data but pledged to remain vigilant, stating, “Our work is not done, because even as we get inflation back down to pre-pandemic levels, we still have to be mindful that too many families are facing high costs.”
- CNN.”Inflation milestone: Consumer Price Index slows below 3% for first time since March 2021″.
- Yahoo.”Inflation data confirms the Fed’s next question: How much to cut?”.
- NYTimes.”The Big Number: 2.9%”.