Biden Shifts US Nuclear Defense Strategy

🔴 Biden Approved Secret Nuclear Strategy Refocusing on Chinese Threat

In a classified document approved in March, the president ordered U.S. forces to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China and North Koreahttps://t.co/f1evOXHSPV

— Amaury Brelet (@AmauryBrelet) August 20, 2024

President Joe Biden has secretly approved a significant change to America’s nuclear defense plan, focusing the US “deterrence strategy” on China for the first time. The move also aims to address the threat of coordination between Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang, reflecting a deeper understanding of nuclear weapons ambitions and recent deepening of strategic military and political partnerships between the three countries. According to a classified Pentagon document, the United States is making plans to counter the growing possibility of a joint Chinese, Russian, and North Korean nuclear strike.

Biden Approved [new Nuclear Employment Guidance in March] Refocusing on Chinese Threat https://t.co/Qc5O5o3nwK

"A stark reminder that whoever is sworn in next Jan 20 will confront a changed and far more volatile nuclear landscape than the one that existed just three years ago."

— Rafael Loss (@_RafaelLoss) August 20, 2024

Last October, a Pentagon report revealed that China’s nuclear weapons stock had expanded significantly over the previous three years, with estimates projecting an increase to 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035, roughly matching the numbers currently deployed by the US and Russia. The revised strategy, named Nuclear Employment Guidance, is a highly classified document that only exists on paper in the hands of a small cohort of national security officials and Pentagon commanders.

Biden shifts deterrence strategy to China

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1/n NYT article says “highly classified nuclear strategic plan…for the first time, reorients America’s deterrent strategy to focus on China’s rapid expansion in its nuclear arsenal.” https://t.co/3D4taxhHH1

— Hans Kristensen (@nukestrat) August 20, 2024

The pivot towards China was alluded to in carefully calibrated public comments by senior administration officials, ahead of a more detailed, unclassified notification of Congress. Pranay Vaddi, the National Security Council’s senior director for arms control and nonproliferation, indicated that this document was the first to examine whether the US was ready to respond to simultaneous or sequential nuclear crises.

Vipin Narang, another official and a professor of nuclear security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the president had “recently issued updated nuclear weapons employment guidance to account for multiple nuclear-armed adversaries.”

The White House has clarified that the new policy is not a response to any single country or threat, but rather takes into account the rapid buildup of nuclear capabilities in some countries, which is expected to rival the size and diversity of US and Russian stockpiles over the next decade. The US-based Arms Control Association notes that the current US nuclear weapons strategy, as described in the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, remains consistent. As the international arms race continues to evolve, the US administration faces the challenge of preparing a nuclear strategy that addresses the complex dynamics of multiple nuclear-armed adversaries.