From @jeannasmialek’s article, “America’s Inflation Fight Is Ending, but It’s Leaving a Legacy: As inflation cools and the Federal Reserve cuts rates, an era of economic upheaval is coming to a close, but not without lingering marks.”#economy #inflation #centralbanks… pic.twitter.com/D3au2YIkHI
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) September 19, 2024
The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower borrowing costs for the first time in over four years signals that America’s battle with high inflation is nearing its end. However, the period of economic upheaval has left lasting impacts on the nation. In Atlanta, people with jobs are turning to homeless shelters for support.
Food banks in Boston are experiencing increased demand as families struggle to afford groceries. Sacramento faces a shortage of available housing.
Pressed by repeated questions during the press conference, Fed Chair Powell had to navigate the contradiction between the unusual step of starting a cutting cycle with a 50 bp cut and the repeated assessment that “the economy is in a good place.”
This got trickier as,…— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) September 18, 2024
Despite these challenges, there are also positive signs, such as reports of recent pay raises and a partly retired homeowner near Pittsburgh who is pleased with his savings.
Inflation has cooled without causing a significant economic downturn, a scenario that few economists believed possible.
My thoughts on the Fed's rate decision in @USNewsOpinion (although I would not actually recommend central bankers pop the champagne). https://t.co/a8deKukO9a
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) September 18, 2024
Consumers continue to spend at a healthy pace, and years of robust job growth and substantial wage increases have benefited many workers. Additionally, rising stock prices are bolstering retirement accounts.
Nevertheless, the past few years have also brought about persistent and significant challenges. Prices remain considerably higher compared to pre-pandemic levels, and many families are still finding it difficult to adapt. Some have experienced wage stagnation relative to rising costs, while others, despite pay increases keeping pace with inflation, are still grappling with the memory of lower prices and a lingering sense of sticker shock.
Across the country, the cost of living has plummeted, a trend that may require time and policy changes to reverse. Grocery inflation surpassed overall price increases in 2022, although it has recently slowed down notably. The Greater Boston Food Bank has consistently delivered over 100 million pounds of food annually since 2020, a significant increase from the less than 70 million pounds in 2019.
Fed’s response to rising prices
Michael Contopoulos, Head of Fixed Income at Richard Bernstein Advisors, has expressed concerns that a Federal Reserve rate cut could potentially reignite inflation. In a recent interview, Contopoulos cautioned that while lowering interest rates might offer short-term relief, it also carries the risk of exacerbating inflationary pressures.
Contopoulos further explained the potential ramifications of such a policy decision, stressing that the current economic landscape is still dealing with the consequences of the pandemic. “Inflation has been one of the major challenges following the economic disruptions caused by COVID-19,” he stated. “A rate cut, while beneficial in some situations, could reignite inflation, which the economy is only starting to manage.”
The primary driver behind the sharp rise in prices observed in both the US and Europe since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic was an unexpectedly strong demand, bolstered by robust fiscal policies and accommodative monetary stances by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).
Several factors contributed to this demand:
1. Pent-up Consumption: Following pandemic restrictions, there was a surge in consumer demand. 2.
Fiscal Stimulus: Exceptionally expansionary fiscal policies were enacted to support economies. 3. Monetary Accommodation: The Federal Reserve and ECB adopted an accommodative stance to mitigate recessionary effects, which inadvertently supported higher inflation rates.
Rising energy prices also played a role in inflation, but it is believed that these increases were largely demand-driven. For example, the demand surge in the US potentially contributed to global energy price hikes. Nevertheless, supply-side energy shocks were less significant than demand forces.
In conclusion, post-pandemic inflation in the US and euro area has been predominantly driven by strong demand forces rather than supply chain disruptions and energy costs alone. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for formulating future economic policies to manage inflation effectively while supporting economic recovery.
- NYTimes.”America’s Inflation Fight Is Ending, but It’s Leaving a Legacy”.
- CNBC.”Richard Bernstein’s Michael Contopoulos says Fed rate cut could risk reaccelerating inflation”.
- CEPR.”The drivers of post-pandemic inflation”.