Today's update. A little surprised that the model didn't move more toward Trump, but a poor series of NYT polls for Harris in GA, AZ and NC was offset by a strong poll for her in Wisconsin.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 23, 2024
A new poll indicates surging support among America’s youngest voters for Vice President Harris in her 2024 showdown against former President Trump. According to a survey released Tuesday morning by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School, Harris leads Trump by 31 points among likely voters aged 18-29. That’s a dramatic switch from Harvard’s survey from this spring, which indicated President Biden topping Trump by just 13 points among young voters.
Today's update. Low volume, but Harris will certainly take today's national polls (NBC +5 or +6; CBS/YouGov +4) and she's now up an even 3 points in our national average.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/lgcquwLbxy
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 22, 2024
Those earlier numbers raised alarms among Democrats, as younger voters have long been a key part of the party’s base. “This poll reveals a significant shift in the overall vibe and preferences of young Americans as the campaign heads into the final stretch,” longtime IOP polling director John Della Volpe said. “Vice President Harris has strengthened the Democratic position among young voters, leading Trump on key issues and personal qualities.”
The poll shows Harris grabbing the support of 61% of likely voters aged 18-29, with Trump at 30%.
As voters get to know @kamalaharris they see the contrast between her forward-looking vision vs the Project 2025 agenda Trump will use to drag us into the past. Harris has seen a 16% increase in favorability since July—and her lead will continue to grow. https://t.co/UNykZT9gKG
— Randi Weingarten 🇺🇸💪🏿👩🎓🟣🌴🥥 (@rweingarten) September 22, 2024
Interesting to see what young RI voters (age 18-34) are most concerned about in the 2024 election (via UNH)
Abortion/women's rights is by far the biggest – top issue for 26% of young voters in RI
Economy is second at 14%
Notable: not even 1% say climate https://t.co/BmQsPY4dZg pic.twitter.com/RNGu101Sl2
— Ted Nesi (@TedNesi) September 23, 2024
Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, and independent Cornel West each stand at 1% support, with 6% undecided or refusing to answer. The vice president’s lead over Trump exceeds the roughly 25-point victory by Biden over Trump among younger voters in the 2020 election. The latest survey was conducted this month and indicated Harris topping Trump by 17 points among voters under age 30.
The poll points to a number of factors fueling Harris’ large margin over Trump.
Harris widens lead among young voters
Among them is a significant enthusiasm gap, with nearly three-quarters of young Democrats saying they will “definitely” vote, compared to 6-in-10 Republicans.
There’s also a jump in Harris’ approval rating as vice president, from 32% in the spring to 44% now. Harris’ favorable rating now stands at plus five points, while Trump’s favorables are 30 points underwater. Also boosting Harris: She outperforms Trump on key issues and personal qualities asked of both major party nominees in the survey.
The poll also highlights the influence of social media, with just over half of young voters questioned encountering memes about Harris online in the last month, and 34% of whom say it positively influenced their opinion. Conversely, 56% have seen memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception. The survey also spotlights a widening gender gap of 30 points, up from 17 points in the spring.
Harris holds a 53%-36% margin among likely male voters aged 18-29, but her lead surges to 70%-23% among likely female voters. Della Volpe emphasized that “Gen Z and young millennials’ heightened enthusiasm signals a potentially decisive role for the youth vote in 2024.”
Harvard’s 48th Youth Poll was conducted from Sept. 4-16 with 2,002 people aged 18-29 nationwide questioned.
The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.65 percentage points.
- CTMirror.”CT Mirror 2024 election poll: Harris leads state; GOP loyal to Trump”.
- FoxNews.”New poll indicates whether Harris or Trump is making gains with younger voters”.
- CNN.”John King breaks down Trump’s edge over Harris on top voter concern in these battleground states”.