China to Raise Retirement Age Gradually

China will gradually raise the retirement age over the next 15 years, starting in 2025. The retirement age for men will increase from 60 to 63, while women in blue-collar jobs will see an increase from 50 to 55, and those in white-collar roles from 55 to 58. The change comes as China faces a rapidly aging population and looming pension budget shortfalls.

Last year, the birth rate hit a record low, and the total population dropped by over 2 million. Experts warn that raising the retirement age may be too little, too late to avert economic challenges.

Gradually increasing retirement age

Yi Fuxian, a Chinese demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said, “If this policy had been implemented 20 years earlier, the current issues might have been avoided.”

The new policy requires employees to contribute more to the social security system to receive pensions starting in 2030. By 2039, workers must have contributed for at least 20 years to be eligible. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences warns that Beijing’s pension pot could be exhausted by 2035, a concern worsened by the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Experts advocate for structural changes in the welfare system, such as establishing a national pension system, to instill greater public confidence. Eli Friedman, a China labor politics expert at Cornell University, said, “With such a system, people are more likely to feel secure about spending money in the present, as the key issue is ensuring adequate pensions for a dignified retirement.”

The gradual increase in retirement age will also impact youth unemployment, which hit 18.8% in September 2024, the highest level since new record-keeping began. Yi Fuxian noted that any sudden significant change in the retirement age could spark protests from both younger generations and those currently in their 50s, “possibly even triggering a political crisis.”